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The last—and for retailers, most important—four months of the year are upon us. As the economy struggles to gain some forward momentum, the retail world is working hard to make the most of the holiday season. While we can be fairly certain that this year’s sales will exceed last year’s, that’s not much of a goal.

According to SymphonyIRI Group in its latest Times & Trends, here are some things keeping CEOs awake nights:

1. Cross-channel shopping is at an all-time high with three-fourths of shoppers visiting five or more channels for CPG needs

- Much of this is the result of deep-discounting and the lack of a strong differentiator

2. Trips overall are down, and basket size has dropped in grocery and mass

- Special-purpose trips are down overall

- People are shopping less frequently, and buying less for each trip

3. Drug and dollar basket size is up

- Convenience and small fill-in trips are driving share gains

Bottom line: the shopper has changed, in some cases significantly. She plans more, shops less, is more likely to forgo luxuries, and is always on the lookout for a better deal. Contrast that behavior with a couple of years ago when shoppers could be counted on to shop on a whim and were open to impulse purchases.

A recent article in Advertising Age laments the arrival of the standard back-to-school marketing programs in stores, and how there seems to be nothing new under the sun.

The upshot of all this: the shopper has changed but the retailer has not. The shopper is better equipped than ever to find the best prices, if that is what she wants. Retailers seem only to respond with a race to the bottom to see who can lose the most on the important items for back to school. This will be repeated for Halloween and throughout the holidays. Turkeys will be given away with abandon, and at least one retailer has gotten into the Way-Back Machine and reintroduced trading stamps and cookware giveaways.

It seems that the more sophisticated and informed shoppers become, the more entrenched and “old school” retailers get. They don’t know how to respond to the needs of this “new” shopper, so they bank on tactics from ten or 30 years ago. Some of these might even work but mostly for the wrong reasons. As shoppers become more comfortable with online and mobile going into the critical holiday weeks, retailers need to be stepping up to meet them halfway or more through solid added value and a willingness to listen—and respond—to her needs.

“Lowest prices” and gimmicky promotions aren’t going to build long-term loyalty. The final four months of 2010 will leave more than a few retailers in the dust. The question is who will be left standing, and who will be in the ditch?

A few years ago at a conference, I heard a presentation on the “Three Ages of TV.” Going all the way back to 1947, the speaker listed the evolution of television viewing—how consumers had changed and what advertisers did in response.

1. 1947-1979: The age of no remote, or the “Interrupt & Irritate” age. Ads could be more obnoxious because most folks wouldn’t get off the couch to change the channel or turn it down.
2. 1980-2004: The remote appears and the game changes significantly. Now viewers can change the channel or mute the sound. Advertisers respond by using an “Entice & Entertain” strategy; in response, ads become more humorous.
3. 2005-2010: The age of TiVo, also known as the “Skip & Omit” age. Advertiser response is to embed ads (product placement) or tie them into the show. Think Ford on “Fringe,” or nostalgic ads on “Mad Men.”

From today forward, it’s anyone’s guess what age we will enter. My guess: television is about to enter the “Age of Irrelevance.” The current trends in marketing are all about local relevance, and television advertising can’t keep up; there is just no way to incorporate the level of local that consumers are looking for today.

The driving force behind this focus on locally relevant engagement is, of course, mobile. With apps like Foursquare, and the recently launched ShopKick, shoppers are “checking in” at local businesses in the hopes of receiving some sort of locally relevant or, even better, personally relevant offer.

According to a new report from San Francisco-based JiWire, 39 percent of consumers are interested in receiving offers for nearby stores through their mobile devices. And at least 50 percent of 18-54 year olds expressed willingness to share their location to receive relevant offers.

Note that age demographic: 18-54. These aren’t teeny-boppers toting cell phones and their allowance; they are valuable shoppers who are at the height of their earning and spending power. In fact, the 25- to 44-year-old group had the highest positive response to this question. That is a good start to the typical retailer’s target market.

Make no mistake, this isn’t the future. It’s right here, right now. And the learning curve is pretty flat—your shoppers are already engaging via mobile devices every day. If you’re looking ahead to fiscal 2011 and still thinking how much money you’re going to spend on newspapers and television, you might want to add mobile into that mix—and give it a healthy boost.

Which leads me to the magic question: What are you doing to maximize this opportunity in your store?

“I guess we take it for granted our customers know how to take care of the food they buy.”

My first thought was how ignorant that statement was; this person apparently felt that teaching shoppers about food safety wasn’t the retailer’s responsibility. I also find it interesting that the person quoted asked not to be named, which tells me he knew he was at least a little out of line making the statement. I’d like to pretend that folks like this are in the minority, but I suspect this is the prevailing attitude in food retail, at least based on the evidentiary lack of existing programs.

Over the past 10 years or so, most retailers have hired dieticians to help educate their shoppers about the health benefits of food; many more have added meal ideas and recipes to their websites and in-store to help busy customers decide what is for dinner and how to prepare it. But little has been done— outside the few retailers named in the SN article—to teach shoppers how to handle and prepare food safely.

September is National Food Safety Education Month. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC), there are roughly 87 million cases of food-borne illness each year in the U.S.; nearly 400,000 people are hospitalized as a result, and nearly 6,000 people die—every year. Those statistics would seem to indicate that we can’t take it for granted that people know how to safely prepare and store food.

Getting past the simple ethics of “doing the right thing,” there is an opportunity here for food retailers: be the first local store to provide information on food safety. Hold classes to teach good food-handling habits, and offer product-specific information at the shelf edge that points out proper handling and storage methods for different foods.

Most of all, the opportunity is for retailers to assume the role of teacher for their customers. Meal ideas, preparation tips, nutrition information and food safety education are all part of the bigger idea of being a resource for shoppers. A few retailers view themselves that way today, but based on the quote in my opening paragraph, we have a long way to go. Food safety education should have the same status as that backyard burger: medium-well at the very least.

Both of these are apt in business, especially so with today’s rapidly advancing technology. But there is an art in being where the technology is headed, and making the right bets on the right tech. A few years ago biometrics was a big idea; a few retailers tried it and shoppers stayed away in droves. It seemed no one wanted to give retailers fingerprint info, no matter how much time it saved. The trick with technology is finding those things that provide real value for the shopper, beyond just the novelty or “gee-whiz” factor.

Mobile is all the rage right now, but with good reason. Mobile devices are nearly ubiquitous, with saturation on the near horizon. No longer a novelty, mobile devices have become as necessary as morning coffee; if you forget your phone when you leave the house, you go back and get it.

Mobile Commerce Daily just published the results of a new study from Latitude showing that shoppers are looking for more mobile tools to help them shop. If you’ve been looking at the mobile market for any time, this comes as no surprise. Fifty-six percent of respondents want more product information, including food origins and food safety info, available on a mobile device. These aren’t kids or early adopters; these are your best shoppers—higher income, well-educated and loyal when their needs are met.

The point here is that mobile is a technology growing from consumer interest; users are driving adoption rather than providers, and they are adopting at a faster rate than anyone expected. The idea of getting information about a product while in the store was nearly unheard of five years ago. Today it’s an expectation from mainstream consumers who won’t understand when a retailer doesn’t make that engagement easy for them.

Generally two concerns pop up when I talk to retailers about mobile connectivity: it’s too leading-edge and the back-end data requirements are too difficult. The fact is that shoppers are already there, and it’s up to us to catch up. Mobile connectivity is soon to be a cost-of-entry solution for retail. And if data delivery is a challenge, then it’s time to start developing solutions because I guarantee your competition is.

Right now most retailers are still chasing the duck, or waiting for it to land. It’s time to refocus and look where the shopper is going because you can bet she’s not looking back and she’s not willing to wait for you to catch up.

There’s something new scuttling around the halls of major food, drug and mass retailers this year. It began rearing its ugly head last year when the economy was at its worst, and has now infested nearly every retailer to varying levels.

I’m talking about SKU rationalization, shortened to SKU Rat by industry folks (mostly manufacturers). Also known, in a more positive spin, as the Strategic Assortment Initiative, the aim is to increase sales and reduce costs by adjusting the mix in our currently over-SKU’d stores. According to a recent white paper from Heinz and Kantar Retail, this amounts to a $25 billion opportunity through reductions in inventory carrying costs and in-store operations, as well as reduced out of stocks.

There’s a statistic quoted in this white paper that’s already making the rounds: according to IRI Supermarket Reviews, 88% of center store items don’t sell a single unit in a day. Retailer board rooms across the country are crackling with the response to this factoid: fix it, and now! But let’s look a little more deeply into this bit of knowledge.

The average supermarket carries roughly 40,000 SKUs. That same average supermarket serves roughly 3,500 shoppers in a day, each buying an average of something less than two items. The majority of those items are fill-in products like milk, bread, eggs and the like. In fact, most of a typical supermarket’s sales come from about 400 unique SKUs, leaving over 39,000 to fill in for stock-up trips and celebration trips where the typical list is expanded somewhat.

Looked at in this way, it should be no surprise that most items don’t sell a single unit in a day. How often do you need toothpicks, for example? But when you do need toothpicks, you need them. Not carrying them is not an option. And the typical store carries three or four SKUs, including those frilly-topped things for sandwiches.

Too often the response to data bites like this one result in knee-jerk reactions that shoot for some unrealistic goal. In this case, some retailers have stated they are looking for a 15% or higher reduction in SKU count. The initial approach is to look at sales, and cut the bottom 20%. Done…or not. More than a couple of retailers have hurriedly put items back on the shelf after cutting too deeply, or not using good analytics to make the cuts.

There’s no doubt that most stores are over-SKU’d. But that’s the fault of retailers who were too anxious to take the money up front without thinking about how this new item fit into their overall merchandising strategy. It’s also the fault of the CPGs that were too eager to offer payola to retailers and get products on the shelf, when that product may not have been the right one for that store.

The only way to fix this problem is to approach it thoughtfully, and – as should always be the case in these decisions – with the needs of the shopper firmly in mind. Only then will changes be positive and long-lasting. In the meantime we’ll all be living with variations of bad “Rat” references.

Over the past few months in this space I’ve made a number of observations about the coming mobile market, and the fact that retailers have been a little slow to respond. Now the National Retail Federation has released its 176-page “Mobile Blueprint,” a guide to help retailers in planning and implementing mobile applications.

I think it’s great that the NRF has gotten on board here, and I applaud the work they’ve done, although I’m afraid that much like the recent Health Care Reform legislation, no one is actually going to read a 176-page document, no matter how good the information might be. There is an Executive Summary available that’s only four pages in length and will at least give the reader some guidance in the development process.

This is all great stuff, and for those who heed the call these documents are well worth the time it takes to digest them.

Needless to say, not everyone will heed that call. There was an article in a Detroit business publication today that reviewed some of the mistakes made by Kmart in its heyday that ultimately led to its current strife. I’m not picking on Kmart; after nearly 30 years in the retail industry I’ve lost count of the businesses that have been their own worst enemies. Companies are run by people, and people are not perfect.

I bring up the story of Kmart in an article about mobile because I believe that in the next 3-5 years we will see at least one major retailer go away directly as a result of NOT having or implementing a mobile strategy. With the near ubiquity of mobile devices, their growing power as computers rather than just telephones, and—most important— the growing demand from shoppers for information, there is just no excuse for not having a mobile strategy on the list of things to get done in 2010.

According to the NRF report though, the majority (62%) of retailers have yet to begin any work in this area. Some feel it’s too far off (it’s here), or they can’t afford it (they can’t afford not to), or that shoppers aren’t ready (shoppers are driving it).

Indeed, there is more than one retailer still thinking about kiosks, and if you’ve read anything I’ve written before, you know not to get me started on the insanity of those eyesores.

The bottom line is that we live in a mobile world. If you aren’t seeing your shoppers interacting at the shelf edge with their mobile device, it’s not because they don’t want to, it’s because there isn’t enough happening there yet. This is one of the few times outside of a fairy tale that it can truly be said that “if you build it, they will come.” In fact, “they” are already there, and waiting for you to bring it. But they won’t wait for long.

Advertising Age just released the results of the current “up-front” television advertising market and declared a resurgence in TV advertising. For those not acquainted with the world of television, the up-front market is where the networks offer advertising time for the coming season. The success of up-front sales apparently has some folks believing that TV is coming back.

There is an old saying that the definition of insanity is “performing the same activities while expecting different results.” Does the fact that more folks are willing to spend more money on television advertising than a year or two ago mean that TV is more effective than it was a year or two ago? Hardly. Television is suffering from a number of ills, including lack of quality, lack of relevance and lack of viewership.

The article quotes a senior partner at Ernst & Young: other media (meaning mobile and social networks) “don’t negate the fundamental value of delivering a large-scale, cost-effective and cost-efficient audience.” Very true. So how about that lowly, but oh-so-effective shelf edge at the local supermarket, drug store or mass merchant? While it may not have the aura of TV, it’s got one big thing going for it: the audience.

Not only does the shelf edge enjoy millions of viewers every day, those viewers aren’t lounging on the couch with the remote in hand. These are engaged viewers; they are, by definition, shoppers who are looking for information and who are focused on the task at hand. If you can find a better way to spend your ad dollars than pointing them at an interested viewer actively seeking more information, bring it on.

Television has a lot in common with the newspaper industry, not the least of which is a declining and fragmented audience. Where once an advertiser could capture 90 percent of the target market with a few well-placed television spots, today the single largest audience is in the store. Back in 2007, the seminal GMA/Deloitte Shopper Marketing study projected a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21 percent for shopper marketing spending, vs. 15 percent for online and only 1 percent growth for “traditional” outlets, i.e. TV, radio and print. So if you’re simply following the money, most of it isn’t going to TV.

This is not to say that TV doesn’t have a role now or in the future. But for those advertisers looking to make the most effective use of their dollars, and willing to shield their eyes from the glitter of TV, the shelf edge makes a whole lot of sense.

Innovation is one of those words tossed about in business so often, and in so many varied contexts, that it has lost its meaning. Merriam-Webster defines innovation in very simple terms: the introduction of something new. But what is new, really?

One of the more famous quotes around innovation comes—allegedly—from Henry Ford, about his idea for building the Model T, a car that the average person could afford. “If I’d asked people what they wanted, they would’ve asked for a faster horse.” I don’t know if that’s really what he said, but I certainly hope it is; it’s a great quote, and it’s not from Steve Jobs.

This quote gets to the heart of innovation, i.e. what is new? Too often we marketers, when asked for new ideas, go out and poll the public at large, or some subset that includes our target market, and we ask them what they want. As Mr. Ford said, this isn’t necessarily the best approach. Rather than ask people what they want, we need to look at their behavior and be able to define the gaps. The original iPod did this beautifully; few people would have asked for it.

A new study from Performics covers how social media is affecting consumer behavior. To no one’s surprise, social media is having a huge effect on the way we interact with one another, and how we spend our time. One notable point from the study is that people want more printable coupons delivered via social media. Really?

I can’t argue with the current interest in coupons, or the fact that more and more folks are finding them online and printing them. But I really have to wonder if “more printable coupons” is really what people want. A coupon accessed online, printed at home, and taken to the store sounds a whole lot like a faster horse to me.

The explosion of companies offering online coupons is testimony to the attention the space is getting. But overall, coupons remain one of the least effective ways to engage a shopper and influence purchase behavior. What people really want, but they don’t know how to ask for it, are ways to save money that are relevant to them. They know about coupons, so they think in those terms. No one is thinking “affordable car.” They are thinking…wait for it…“faster horse.”

We owe it to our shoppers to give them not what they are asking for, but what they want and need. Social media, along with mobile connectivity, is the big story today. Seems like we should be looking at connecting the two in a way that allows retailers to connect with shoppers and offer them savings that are relevant, is trackable, and finally puts the coupon horse out to pasture.

Yesterday Steve Jobs once again ruled the news with the “official” introduction of the new iPhone, dubbed v.4. The result is the same as always when Mr. Jobs takes the stage: the Apple faithful readjust their smirks for being part of the cult, while the non-Apple-toting population pretends not to care, or openly gnashes their teeth in frustration.

Often times the devices we use aren’t our decision. Most folks get whatever their companies have authorized, and it’s rare that the user actually gets to choose. There are still a few companies out there restricting the use of the devices, either not allowing text messaging, or web access, or some other feature. This is frustrating for those who carry these devices, and for many people it means having to carry a second device in order to have full functionality.

The flip side of this equation is how companies are making themselves available via the mobile web, or an application. Fifteen years ago, it was the leading-edge companies alone with a presence on the web. Today, any company without a website might as well not bother, as that is our number one way to learn about…well, everything. In his book, “The Search,” author John Battelle coins the term “database of intentions” in reference to the Internet. The idea here is that we go online anytime we plan to do anything from see a movie, to make dinner, to buy a car or plan a vacation.

Increasingly, this activity is shifting to a mobile base, rather than a desk-bound PC. The time between search and action is shrinking, with some of the research being done during the shopping trip, literally at the shelf edge. An example of this is the shopper who uses an app that will scan a product barcode, and return pricing for that product in every local brick & mortar location, as well as online. This transparency is great for the shopper, but for retailers it means that calling yourself the low price leader requires that you be able to back it up with facts.

The point to all of this is that the world continues to shrink; we expect more information, more quickly, and want to make decisions in real-time. Being online is a cost-of-entry, offering a mobile touchpoint is quickly becoming just as necessary. Transparency is a key element, and every company must live by its stated values because there is no longer a “wall” between internal reality and external perception.

Try as we might, this progression will not stop – ever. The best response is to embrace what’s coming, and try to make some bets on where it will go. The mobile juggernaut is here, it’s moving, and it’s unstoppable. If you’re not making plans to be a part of this movement, then prepare to be bypassed, or crushed, as the mobile world passes you by.